Get to grips with the Gartner Hype Cycle

The Hype Cycle (Gartner's 1995 model)

Basically, the hype cycle measures the buzz as well as the adoption rate.
It doesn't necessarily relate to the long-term utility - or success - of a phenomenon.
That is something that only time will tell.

For further information see:

Diagram
WikiPedia link
Introduction to the 5 phrases to 'hype cycle'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner

5 phrases of the Hype Cycle taken from http://www.gartner.com/

1. "Technology Trigger"The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. "Trough of Disillusionment"Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. "Slope of Enlightenment"Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. "Plateau of Productivity"A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.